Cartoons and riots made the headlines in Europe last week, but a far less fiery event, the publication of an academic study, might shed greater light on future of the Continent. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, headquartered in Paris, released a report, Going for Growth, that details economic prospects in the industrial world. It is 160 pages long and written in bland, cautious, scholarly prose. But the conclusion is clear – Europe is in deep trouble. These days we all talk about the rise of Asia and the challenge to America, but it might well turn out that the most consequential trend of the next decade will be the economic decline of Europe.

It’s often noted that the European Union has a combined gross domestic product that is approximately the same as that of the United States. But the EU has 170 million people. Its per capita GDP is 25 percent lower than that of the US and, most important, that gap has been widening for 15 years. If present trends continue, the chief economist at the OECD argues, in 20years the average US citizen will be twice as rich as the average Frenchman or German. (Britain is an exception on most of these measures, lying somewhere between Continental Europe and the US)

People have argued that Europeans simply value leisure more and, as a result, are poorer but have a better quality of life.

That’s fine if you’re taking a 10 percent pay cut and choosing to have longer lunches and vacations. But if you’re only half as well off as the US that will translate into poorer health care and education diminished access all kinds of goods and services, and a lower quality of life. Two Swedish researchers, Frederik Bergstorm and Robert Gidehag, note in a monograph published last year that “40 percent of Swedish households would rank as low-income households in the US” In many European countries the percentage would be even greater.

In March 2000, the EU’s heads of state agreed to make the EU “the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-driven economy by 2010” Today this looks like a joke. The OECD report goes through the status of reforms country, and all the major continental economies get a B-minus. Whenever some politician makes tiny, halting efforts at reform, strikes and protests paralyze the country. In recent months, reformers like Nicolas Sarkozy in France, Jose Manuel Barroso in Brussels and Angela Merkel In Germany have been backtracking on their proposals and instead mouthing pious rhetoric about the need to “manage” globalization. EU Trade Commissioners Peter Mandelseon’s efforts to liberalize trade have been consistently undercut. As a result of the EU’s unwillingness to reduce its massive farm subsidies, the Doha trade-expansion round is dead.

Talk to top-level scientists and educators about the future of scientific research, and they will rarely even mention Europe.

There are areas in which it is world-class, but they are fewer than they once were. In the biomedical sciences, for example, Europe is on the map, and much poorer Asian countries might well surpass it. The CEO of a large pharmaceutical company told that in 10 years, the three most important countries for his industry would be the United States, China and India.

And what can we about the demographics? In 25 years, the number of working-age Europeans will decline by 7 percent, while those over 65 will increase by 50 percent. One solution: let older people work. But Europe’s employment rate for people over 60 is low: 7 percent in France and 12 percent in Germany (compared with 27 percent in the US). Modest efforts to allow people to retire later have been met with the usual avalanche of protests. And while economists and the European Commission keep proposing that Europe take in more immigrants to expand its labor force, it won’t. The cartoon controversy has powerfully highlighted the difficulties Europe is having with its existing immigrants.

What does all this add up to? Less European influence in the world Europe’s position in institutions like the World Bank and the IMF relates to its share of world GDP. Its dwindling defense spending weakens its ability to be a military power abroad even for peacekeeping purpose. It’s cramped; increasingly protectionist outlook will further sap its vitality.